If you ask people this question, my guess is that most people would say David Ortiz. That was the response a few days ago after I wrote this:
Well, Hafner has been the best hitter in the American League so far, but that didn't even net him an All-Star appearance, so I'm not sure what to make of that.
In response, a commenter named Kampy had this to say:
Big Papi might have a problem with your anointing Hafner the best AL hitter in the first half... his average isn't there because of the shift, but the numbers and clutch hits sure are.
Not to single a commenter out (just using it as an example), but I must say I respectfully disagree.
Sure, the HR and RBI numbers are there, and he seems to be hitting a game-winning HR every time you turn around. But if you read any of my stuff then you know I'm not one to put much stock into RBI and the like. Let's compare some other numbers:
AVG - Hafner (.322) > Ortiz (.278)
OBP - Hafner (.461) > Ortiz (.388)
SLG - Hafner (.650) > Ortiz (.609)
OPS - Hafner (1.112) > Ortiz (.996)
RC/27 - Hafner (10.91) > Ortiz (8.00)
ISOP - Ortiz (.330) > Hafner (.329)
AB/HR - Ortiz (10.6) > Hafner (11.4)
What does all of this mean? Well, in my opinion, it's a pretty darn good argument that Hafner is the better hitter than Ortiz, at least through the 1st half of this year, even without adjusting for the parks that they play in or who bats behind them. The power numbers are about equal - the SLG advantage for Hafner is mainly do to the difference in BA - but Hafner is getting on base at a much more prolific rate. The Isolated Power stat suggests that they are basically even as far as power is concerned.
The other thing that is most often cited in Ortiz' favor is that he's a 'clutch' hitter. Once again I'm not sure that the numbers exactly prove that to be the case. First the numbers for each man with runners in scoring position and 2 out, the situation that is probably most considered 'clutch.' For fun, I won't give you their names yet.
Player 1 - .295 AVG/.446 OBP/.614 SLG - 4 HR, 23 RBI - 44 AB
Player 2 - .290 AVG/.522 OBP/.839 SLG - 5 HR, 20 RBI - 31 AB
How about with the bases loaded, another situation that can be described as 'clutch.'
Player 1 - .364 AVG/.385 OBP/1.091 SLG - 2 HR, 17 RBI - 11 AB
Player 2 - .700 AVG/.636 OBP/2.200 SLG - 5 HR, 25 RBI - 10 AB
Ok, so I can only assume that not telling you the names didn't fool anyone, and that you all know that Player 1 is David Ortiz and Player 2 is Travis Hafner. But would those numbers have been surprising if you didn't know going in? David Ortiz is always portrayed as the clutch hitter, and maybe with good reason, but Travis Hafner is pretty darn good there too.
So I humbly submit to you that Travis Hafner is in fact the best hitter in the American League.
Thoughts?
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